Ї𣬵ҲĳЩAyǘӣܿ^ՓҲ߬FڵĿ2003꣬ҾڡЇyεĬFǰҼ@[1]rָǣδҊ20-30ȣЇL롰ĠB^ָBhAlָ࣬й಻ڶڃȱ

ҼHЇġƽ𡱵Ї˥

2015_ʼHЇĿҼ180ȵĴDġsՓҼ׃ɡՓl@݆Ԓ}ΡAʢDWThe George Washington UniversityQGWUGWΌW͇HPϵ󂥣David ShambaughAʢDHWߣЇɡu顰ӰЇ}ҡ󂥏LڹĴЇƽͻȻĞJͬЇ MְׂԼ½YՓġ޸Ğ顰˥@ɘOڱclķ푣cǰ¼ҶأGordon ChangǱЇThe Coming Collapse of ChinaҼӣ󂥵ęλЇJ֪D׃ЇоA⽻ȦӰ푶ܴ

2009 ָrЇMʢ˥DcIYЇ繤S_ʼ˥䣬ЇòƳY4f|s5,860|ԪYľӋֲԓֵġFuָF··AOʩĿɇصĮa^ʣ}^cl֮ᣬԼ2003^ceČЇأЇFڃȁKй_ЇĬFcδڡc֮gġ 

2016꡶¿lˌyWRĲLWRxThe Obama DoctrineWRJ飬Ҽ˥ЇȾЇ££ЇʧδЇİlչoM˿MxKҼNMԭtЇе֪oГ𘋽H؟ΣЇHH춵؅^քݺӰ҂HҪ]δcЇl_ͻĿԣ֪҂ҲRyc[2]l@ЩrWR׌mࡣM׌m֮rЇ˽Ƥë@Щ꽛v˲١ЇLꡱЇJRġɿΡ߀㲻e

Ї@Ҽ˿ڴΌwƣʼK׌粻𲻰ԭs׃H^S}ǡlBЇָZʳΣC2003_ʼġЇ{ƽFڄtЇ˥硣۵ķʽAyжNӣЇԼO^СSЇ˿yȫ磩֮WRᵽġxM񱊡cЇxͽĴġք̡ơ

ҼֵP]ĬFǣHЇ^r䣬ֱǰ߀оԷQЇ2030ꌢ^ɞ󽛝wȥ_ʼּӑՓЇҪˡAЇɞ󽛝wЇЌ@gډ֮Ԯa@N޴錦ⲿ^߁fЇИOĲ_ԣ@N_ԲԴЇĲ˽⣬ԴЇڇHкٰҎtơ

ЇݔЇģʽȲΣC

䌍ȇHJRȲΣC@ЇČc׃ͿԺؿ2009ǰЇδĽlչ^^2009_ʼđB_ʼl΢׃

2003ףйՓԪ؈Їƽ֮fɞP]c⽻20059-10̖ϰl¡Їƽ𡷣̶ȣЇČڏɡƽD׃ҪԡRthe Beijing Consensus[3] ȡAʢDR Washington ConsensusҪݔЇģʽҫ@ίyf˹ĸ{푑Ҽr֮gȻIЇģʽЌlչЇҽ֮ݡ

2009ЇGDP״γ^ձɞڶ󽛝wrЇδu׃ñ^֔QЇS෽߀ǰlչЇҡ20113H؛ŻMIMFҼ݈QُIƽrӋЇGDP5ᳬԽ2016ꌢɞ顰ЇoԪꡱrѽӽβЇɇҽyӋ־LRó棬l·gIMF@݈棬QЇĽlչˮƽ߀[4]ãЇٷְlϢʾIMFʹُIƽrӋ㷽óYՓKʴ_[5]Ї֮ԲϽܡҼ@픸ñߌѽ_ʼnЇFyҲ֪@Щyضǟo˷ăڼ

ĵЇ^ҲS]⵽2009_ʼЇֹͣˡƽ𡱵ČԣRcЇģʽ@{Ϣģȡ֮йIƽfЇҼݔݔIؚȥv߀ʲfġ[6]cͬrЇҼֱоȆ}2012ƽæ춑йߌӃȲҵęYֱ2015꣬㌢ӋҼ߹MOzoЇ_ʼI]lʧIᣬƽ𲽼ӏƣuЇcwƵՓҼɇη߱mץ܇HԍȡNYЇMNGOSCcڶЩʹúYЇNGOɆTBρKеŮĿҲֹֹͣ3ٶλSɎcSʿ@NoĿֲУ20163Ѯô󡢵ձW˵ȸvʹºйLЇµġַWjȫMݰ_P]n]ϣйɉƣ@NP]׺]κá

H[ncЇǰ

WRЇxֻǵˇHҼnҼnt^棬ǾǓЇͨ^܊UD˿ΣCͬW޵Ĕy񳱡@noSЇ˥ˣЇĳlʧI˿ڸ_3|࣬ռЇڄg˿ڵ֮Ҽ

˥֮ᣬЇc֮gԭеġsyԞ^2015_ʼpɽúVԼ؇˵ĴҎģh̖ǡ҂ҪH_ʼRЇ韩й֮⣬߀Ҽlܞ锵|ʧI˿ҵЇı@}֮ԏ2015_ʼٶȸˮ棬^[[Rͬ挦ʧI}Ї˿ڡYԴc͘IȆ}ЇȻyԽQy}@ǊWRf˥ЇȏЇ¡ĬFǰᡣ

֮׃ɡ֮Լɴ˶ĔyΣC׌ȫ򿴵ɂ}ҼƉhؽףڶȫ򹠇ѽa2.44|yڳɞȫĺĆ}[7] 2015ԁWRĔyΣCC_ŵĸϵyڎװfy񳱵ě_yԱ

ЇҼ˿ڴ@Թԁ˺ٵhľ֮Ρƴؑ^֮֮⣬rcĻġؚϵЇԏĸĸ_ԁ40g͸֧Bcڹ͸rĽlչ_׌Ї˳Pߌ@Q֮Їycϰ֮g_ɵġsτZϰոNrightsZlչ׌ϰ܉͘IʳסеõM㡣ЇٰlչAΣHJ飬ͨ^MЇĽlչMٳЇڱȠDοyr_ҼL_ʮČAԮӋK2003_ʼTʩϣͨ^gķɺMЇķνOMЇ

2005ꡰЇƽՓF֮ᣬHġЇHγ{Fڄt׃ɡ˥ЇȾЇ¡10֮gЇ^о@ҼȦֻصԭcyWRĿK˵ĿAȦFڵĿߌЇLоc˽⣬Їā͛]г^ĿԣֻҪЇ]벻ɿصⲿ_ͻڃҲ

ġЇľc˥ĹͬԴahYx

2016꣬Їĸ헽ָ˱佛ѽ@L˥ˡǣƤоģPew Research Centre20165¹{Ȼ@ʾҼJ飬ЇҼҪ{ķ֮Ҽ˰ЇČ֡[8] Ͻ^󲿷ևң؄eЇ߅ϣЇ·ڇHծлϰՇHҎt£c߅Ҝpٛ_ͻγҼNͬsѺPϵǣЇ·᣿ЇĽsǴM߀ǕahČƣ@HPϵЇǰҲPϵЇ߅δİȫ

磬yк͇H؛ŻMHCƺЇǰM㿾هҶϣЇ@ˡ܇ǣÿЇĽWվѼϢ͕@ӠذlF2008_ʼ2016꣬׺ÿЇýw@Ҽlݲͬ}ăݎ׺ͬЇyҼꡱl@ģЕrǿˣЕrWҡ[9] ^Ї^߁fҲSJ@Nˑn죬˽ЇHr˅sףЇBm9ړĿܳFyľ棬KЇWߵ͹ĽlչЇS}ˮaIY֮⣬䲻費㣬ЇlչҪԭ

 

1970_ʼЇҼֱнĸ׃ahԭxƶȣوԳֹƺӋ^40ĸЇFҼNahcYxY顱νƶȣЇģʽɞYFʷϵҼE֮ԌQ֮顰E鹲ax\ӵġ} ahԡᔽFaxcYxݲoaAMɵhahYxľĹˡᣬԓӁJRЇĸa@Nصνƶأ߰Ї@NصνƶȷQ顰ahYxCommunist Capitalism[10]

 

^ahYxǌ֮µęFYxӇYxЇģʽĺ fζYxҵĹahvxwƵʧ֮ᣬYxwƁSϵahĽyΣͬrahĸنTH٣ͨ^Јеę׃FɞIҡ󷿮a~YaߵȸN͵YңЇĴ󲿷ؔ@N֣ʹtɫFҪSЇahLڽyΡֻйܱoؔaȫKͨ^ŔИI^m۔޴ؔ

 

ˡahYxӊZԣ20֮gЇķs˥@Ҽ^̣䌍ЇģʽͬҮڡЇ塷[11]ҼָǘӣЇĸĸ·ԙЈ|@ҼģʽQЇģʽOμYxЇѸٰlչcҼȷsйahYx֮@NģʽҼYԴϧ͸֧@ȾBhc񽡿ӊZʽѸٰlչGDP٣ͬrҲ׌tɫɆTcahنTӊZؔԷʣЇ˥ˣҲɹahYxɣ@Nģʽɸӣڶ̕rڃʹ缉ЇͬrҲa|FˣЇcԣЮaMُIݳƷrSFBMճ󶼘Oy@Nصؚ࣬H׌ЇA֮ga޴ќϣ߀ˏȫޡAɢMի@ĕrˣЇ挦Fc@ڵĺֺԵĺԼ|]k@ùCʧIߡ

 

^ָЇL@ҼNBκهĂҪأҼBhˮء՚ȵĭhȫ{ɆT֮gОҎĵwϵɆTa׾wָ˾Ծ͘IIࣻǾS\DķcƶȌ挦ɆTʩӵҼNsߣЇFֻʣďƣҪؾѽЌ^ģ˵cƶȣͨ^׃ڶڃȸ׃{֮⣬ǰЇLҪأKͨ^ڎʮи^[12] ЇYԴ춡SЇȱԽMҼPɢɳocй@K޴Bʯй20-30ȲЇL̎춡B@^й͸֧ЇδԾSڵ^̣ҲЇ՝u˥^̣ȻЇⲿጷŸNؓӰ푵^̣Ї˿wh@Ⱦ硢쌦_ͻDƇìܵȵȡ

塢ahYxI\

 

ֹȫа_˹mʿͰĴڃȵ81ҳJЇЈҵλᣬҼЈeOcȫ򻯵ЇǲҲ͵Ͻ^Ҽӣγɹƶȴ挣ƶȣԎǣЇK·2005ԁoՓǺ\߀ƽЇ_ʾ^]ҵƶȡ֮ԕˈԳxƶȣЇѽɞҼI\࣬KҼˮбI\Đc

 

ΌWޡԼϚWȇĸQ֮顰I\ࡱ áI\؝ouӊZؔc˽ؔĽyߣǡ֡K֮֞ķN͡V߼춸ߌӵЃࣺҼcIؔFγp߅ŔࣻҼǡI\yΡćҡV߷ֲе͌ӵҲЃࣺҼYԴPϵVʽҼǺhƵćҡ@ЩıI\19541989yΰİס¡˹_˹{ࡢ19651997꼙ɲࡢ19571986gصĶࡣ[13] @Щ߶ȸنTӊZؔؔᶼƷoҼк

ЇF༯I\cV߱鲼ߌcе͌ӣʹҼССՆTҲĪЙ⡣SࡰI\ࡱ^ӊZֶΣĪЇFe£

ҼaIƳɞنTˌֶΡֻҪĳИIɈDԓИISCͳɞنT\ȡ˽ֶΡúVVcNVaĜƶȶ˞نTaؔĹߣЇҲϵVyߡEɞEض­h؛@Ⱦćȡ

صć҉Ŕɞ߫@Y˒ЇنTҼȺͨ^DֵuĲĵخaн̣{̙ϰհwԱظ߃ruoخa_ḷĲЇنT؝飬ܶ඼cP[14]Їĸзخaռȷǳ[15]

I˽лɞӺ͵طنTlMؔľ޴󡰽Vɽ|ʡTLꐹ⣬Ҽښuԓ272҇I@áu⡱ľb̖uЇĸҼ١[16]u⡱˷e۴ؔᒶӣ֪Ă䡣ЇIؓ؟˷ɞ鸯w֣2004Iӵշռk؝@VT41.5%ஔֶcIĸP2014ƽд͇ķ\ӣҼ֮ȴ115߹ܣȫ^ʯ͡ЇϷաAҼʯı߹ڃ[17]

Їĸѽ40꣬h̎춸ĸδɠBÿθĸﶼɞ߼ȡؔЧܵTI˽лCȯЈڱOwƸĸȣÿҼθĸ׺ʹҼنT˸̡ƽ_ᣬ얹Լę÷ֶΣͬrҲӏˌنTļsنTJ飬@ӵߔ^Լؔ·ȡԑ֮

tɫЇFќS鹲ahӢ˽ayμFҪּtɫɽ׃ɫǣIʽӊZЏķEVصMʹ@RθLUBSַͳ˽yμFļw|춓ӊZؔoLUЇξӢƫЇtYӇ[18] Ї˱oyμF棬еYԴSķ@ЇľSMãȫ_ֱ֧܊Mԭ[19] Їƺθ߉ԇDʽѿB@fFA׌ӵćزMNȺw¼ԼWҼЩ㹲ahنTQ֮ᚢȫҡĘOՓֻӏйSoyεěQģʹйFغ͵D͡

ЇFRҼϵЎ׺ɿ˷Ľy}˽20Їܿ̎ҼN˥decayBf2008֮Ľ߄UͣЇߵľLͣLҼM߀m»Сƽ֮ᣬЇ߉݋ǣlչáfЇģʽЧҪĸ˥ˡĲtSַǵҼҪգ@Nrθĸֻ׌RΣUЇFξֳίɽѼ]xvʷWп˾Sġfƶc[20]п˾Sɡ̵ĸҼĵΣUĕŕKа֮r_ʼĸ֮H@Nĸ˼S֧£й^mS֌ƶ·˱ס࣬й֪ΣCǸSֽڷPIۣᘌЇӰyϵye۶ɵĸNrըڶ̶̲ҼrgY20168_ʼR䱣l؛žS20172_ʼĽDٵ6µġ׃λҎģDYaЇвֹ[21] @ЩʩйyμFmRΣCѽͰNOΏăȲĿԽ͵Mܵ͵ĳ̶ȡ