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Italiano魏京生：中共已如惊弓之鸟
转自：新世纪，文章内容并不代表本网立场和观点。
上个月一批小青年在网络上搞了一个小动作，模仿北非的茉莉花革命发了一个呼吁让大家上街游行。它没有明确的目标，也没有行动的口号，甚至没有预先的舆论准备，看上去不是很认真的一场行动。但是却一石激起千层浪，让各界都反应过度。这是为什么呢？
日本大地震引起了更大的一场核危机。核能发电厂发生严重的核泄漏，而且事态还在继续发展，有可能演变成为苏联切尔诺贝利核电站那样的大灾难。但是日本社会在大地震加上核灾难面前，仍然保持着冷静的、有秩序的救灾工作。他们没有惊慌失措；没有一片混乱；没有丧失信心。可这在中国却发生了意想不到的灾难，居然在几天之内就把市场上的食盐抢购一空。
据说是因为有谣言说：吃了含碘的食盐可以防止核辐射的危害。 核辐射在日本，日本人并没有惊慌失措到了谣言四起就去抢购食盐的地步，为什么远在中国的人们倒惊慌失措地去抢购食盐呢？为什么一个谣言就使得整个社会都惶惶不可终日了呢？这是什么心理造成的呢？这是政府失去人民信任所造成的。这也是历史上多次出现过的，王朝末日的一个普遍现象。
当一个国家的统治集团丧失了人们对它的信任的时候， 就会出现这种社会心理倾向，也就是人们不知道该相信什么了。官方的权威不可信，只能相信谣言了。何况多少年来的事实证明：谣言的可信度超过了官方的权威。很多正确的信息都是从谣言中得到，官方的权威信息反倒像谣言一样不可靠。
官方倾向于欺骗老百姓；老百姓在两个谣言中选择了多年后， 只好倾向于相信来自于民间的谣言，而不相信官方的谣言。因为相比之下，民间谣言骗人的动机还是少得多，顶多不过是不太准确而已；而官方谣言则充满了骗人的动机。两害相权取其轻，相信民间谣言显然是比较明智的选择。
不管中共执政的理念如何，单从它执政的方法上来看，就是错误的。 孔夫子在两千多年前就说过：人无信不立。政府也一样，没有信用就站不住脚。可是共产党的基本方法就是依靠专制的手段取得和维持政权。它既不需要讲理，也不需要信任。暴力就是万能的，枪杆子里边出政权。这就是马克思、列宁，到毛泽东、邓小平一脉相传的基本理论和基本原则。
换成中国古代的说法，就是靠马上得天下，也要靠马上治天下。 信用和信任在他们的方法中无足轻重。我手里有权，想怎么骗你就怎么骗你，想怎么捏你就怎么捏你。你相信我或者不相信我有什么关系呢？我只要掌握好手中的暴力机关就可以了。我是流氓，我怕谁。不服的话，就把你打翻在地，然后踏上一只脚。共产党就是这样掌握政权的，它不需要人民信任，只需要服从。
所以共产党政权无一例外，都是把法律看作可有可无， 只要掌握了刀把子和笔杆子就行了。笔杆子用来欺骗大多数人；有少数不被欺骗或者不愿被欺骗的，就用刀把子解决。这种执政方法就叫做专政。专政的法律只不过是统治者手中的工具，想怎么用就怎么用，想不用就可以不用。所以中共的发言人一不小心就会说漏嘴，在记者会上训斥别人“不要用法律作挡箭牌”。她竟然不知道法律的作用就是每一个人的挡箭牌。法律都不能成为人们的挡箭牌了，人们从哪儿得到安全感呢？
法律的本质就是一种信用。还有一种说法叫做社会契约。 契约的基础也是信用。政治就是管理社会的工作，也叫做治理众人之事。中文的政治含义非常清楚，就是用正当的方法治理社会。这个正当的方法的核心，就是法律。
官员不可能随时随地地告诉人们该做什么，不该做什么。 法律在大多数情况下告诉人们该做什么，不该做什么。所以法律是政治的核心。而法律发生效用的基础，就是人们对它的信任，或者说是法律的信用。政府的主要工作就是确保法律的信用，和运用法律治理社会。当政府自己破坏法律的信用的时候，人们就无所适从了。当这种对法律的破坏积累到一定程度的时候，对社会的治理就开始失效。人们不知道该相信谁，大多数人失去了安全感。这是社会混乱的主要原因。
中共这六十年来逐渐地失去了人们对它的信任。 中共和它的官员自己带头破坏法律的信用，甚至骄横地警告别人不要拿法律作挡箭牌。所以才会造成无故惊扰的现象。这在古代，就是亡国的先兆。现代也一样。所谓的中东茉莉花革命，就是从突尼斯的“无故惊扰”开始的。一个小小的事件造成的惊扰迅速扩散成为一场革命，然后再扩散到周边国家，形成了国际性的民主浪潮。它的基础就是政府丧失了信用，是人们普遍对政府的不信任。
最近中国不断产生的这种无故惊扰的现象，正是中共的亡国之兆。 而造成人们对政府不信任的根本原因，恰恰是中共执政的基本方式——专政的方式造成的。这种依靠欺骗和镇压维持政权的执政方式，正在为中国的茉莉花革命创造着条件。想让它不发生，都不太可能。
正是因为意识到了这一点，所以中共自己的表现就像是惊弓之鸟。 所以温家宝代表的一批相对聪明的中共官员，才会不断地呼吁民主的政治体制改革。改革什么呢？改的就是专政的基本执政方式。不论他持有什么样的理论和目标，专政的方式也无法继续下去了。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
（撰写于2011年3月17日，录音于2011年3月18日。 自由亚洲电台播出。）
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The Chinese Communist Party Is Already As a Frightened Bird Seeing a Bow and Arrow
— Wei Jingsheng
Last month, a small group of young Chinese on the Internet engaged in a little trick. They called Chinese to demonstrate in public by imitating the Jasmine Revolution in North Africa. There were no clear objectives, no slogans for action, and not even some preparation of public opinions in advance. It seemed to be an action that was not very serious. Yet, one stone caused thousands ripples, which resulted in all overreacting. Why was this?
Japan’s huge earthquake caused a great nuclear crisis. There were threatening leaks from the nuclear power plant, and the situation is still developing. It may evolve into a big disaster similar to that of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. However, facing a major earthquake and nuclear threat, the Japanese society maintained a calm and orderly relief work. They did not panic; there was no chaos; they did not lose their confidence. Yet, the unexpected disaster happened in China instead, and within a few days salt in the Chinese markets was all sold out.
It is said that is because eating iodine salt can prevent hazards from nuclear radiation. The nuclear radiation is in Japan and the Japanese have not panicked to the point of buy all the salt due to rumors. Yet, why would the Chinese far away be panic-stricken to the point of buying out all the salt? Why could one rumor put the whole Chinese society in a state of anxiety? What kind of psychology is responsible? It results from the people’s distrust of a government. This is also a common phenomenon that appeared many times historically at the end of a dynasty.
When a country’s ruling clique loses the trust of the people, this kind of social psychology will appear. People do not know what to believe. The official authority is not trusted, so people rather trust rumors. More so, facts from many years in the past proved the credibility of rumors is better than words from the official authority. One could obtain much correct information from these so-called “rumors”, while the official information from the Communist regime is often untrustworthy.
These Communist officials tend to deceive the people. After selecting from two kinds of rumors for many years, the Chinese people have learned to believe the rumors from the people, instead of from the government. That is because in comparison, the rumors from the people lack deceptive motives. To the least they may be not quite accurate, while the rumors from the Chinese government are full of motives for deception. To choose the lighter of the two evils, believing the rumors from the people, is obviously a wiser choice.
Regardless of the rational concept of the Chinese Communist Party, it is already wrong from just viewing the method of the Communist ruling. More than two thousand years ago, Confucius already said: “Without trust, one cannot establish one’s self.” This is true for the government as well. When a government lacks trustworthiness, it cannot establish itself to stand solid. However, the basic method of the Communist Party is to obtain and maintain its power by relying on its authoritarian means. It does not need to be reasonable, nor require trust. For the Communist Party, violence is a panacea. As the Communist leaders often claimed quote by Mao Zedong: “the regime comes out of the gun barrels.” This gun barrel is the basic theory and basic principle which was derived from the same origin of Marx and Lenin, and carried on by Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
As another ancient Chinese saying: obtain the world by power, and rule the world by power.” Credit and trust are irrelevant in their methods. “If I have power, I can cheat you any way I want, I can squeeze you any way I want, so what is the relevance if you believe me or not? All I need to do is to master the violent mechanism in my hand. I am a rogue, so fear me. If you do not, I will throw you to the ground and set my foot on you back.” This is the way for the Chinese Communist Party to hold its power, and it does not need people’s trust, only obedience.
So without exception, the Communist regimes treat laws as optional. All they need are knives and pens. Pens are used to deceive the majority. For the minority who could not be deceived or are not willing to be deceived, knives are used. This kind of governing method is called dictatorship. The law in a dictatorship is just a tool in the hands of the rulers. They use laws in any way they like, and do not use it if they do not want to. Recently a spokesperson for the Communist regime accidentally gave it away the truth. In a press conference, she scolded others with: “Do not use the law as a shield to excuse.” She even did not know that the law is a shield for everyone. When the law cannot be the shield for the people, where can they get a sense of security?
The essence of law is a credit. There is another way called a social contract. The basis of a contract is also credit. Politics is the work of managing the society, or say managing everyone. In Chinese, the political implication of the word “politics” is very clear, which is to use proper methods to administrate the society. The core of these proper methods is the law.
Officials cannot keep telling people everywhere what to and what not to do all the time. In most cases, the law tells people what to and not to do. So the law is the core of politics. The basis for the law to be effective is the people’s trust, or the credit of the law. The main work for the government is to ensure the credit of law, and use law to govern the society. When a government itself is breaking the credit of law, people are uncertain what to do. When this kind of destruction of the law accumulates to a certain degree, the governance of society begins to fail. People do not know whom to trust, and most people lose their sense of security. This is the main reason for social chaos.
The Chinese Communist Party has gradually lost the confidence of the people in the past 60 years. The Party and its officials take the lead in breaking the credit of law, and even arrogantly warn others not to take the law as an excuse. Thus, it produces this phenomenon of disturbance without sufficient reason. In ancient times, that would be an omen for the collapse of a dynasty. It is also true in modern days. The so-called Jasmine Revolution in the Mideast started from the “disturbance without sufficient reason” in Tunisia. A small event resulted in enough disturbance to spread rapidly into a revolution that then spilled into neighboring countries, thus forming an international wave of democratization. It happened because these governments lost their credit.
Recently, the phenomenon of “a disturbance without sufficient reason” has been happening more and more frequently in China. This is the omen for the collapse of the Chinese Communist ruling. The root reason making people distrust the Communist government is precisely the basic way of the Communist rule — by dictatorship. This kind of governing by relying on deception and repression is creating the conditions for the Jasmine Revolution in China. Even if one does not want it happen, one could hardly stop it.
Exactly due to this realization, the Communist party’s own behavior is like a frightened bird seeing a bow and arrow. Thus, a group of relatively wiser Communist officials represented by Wen Jiabao are continuously appealing for a democratic reform of the political system. What to reform? What needs to change is the basic governing way of the dictatorship. No matter what theory and objectives they might hold, this way of the dictatorship cannot be continued.
To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng’s commentary, please visit:
(Written on March 17, 2011 and recorded on March 18, 2011. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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发文者：NCN 发布时间：3/21/2011 11:28:00 上午
